duke a thinking in bets
Duke A. Thinking In Bets
Poker champion turned business consultant Annie Duke teaches you how to get comfortable with uncertainty and make better decisions as a result. In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a hand off to his star running back. The pass was intercepted and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck? Even the best decision doesnt yield the best outcome every time. Theres always an element of luck that you cant control, and there is always information that is hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making? Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, its difficult to say Im not sure in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions dont always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions dont always lead to bad outcomes. By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you dont, youll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. Youll become more confident, calm, compassionate and successful in the long run.
1518 Руб.
Duke A. Thinking In Bets
Poker champion turned business consultant Annie Duke teaches you how to get comfortable with uncertainty and make better decisions as a result. In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a hand off to his star running back. The pass was intercepted and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck? Even the best decision doesnt yield the best outcome every time. Theres always an element of luck that you cant control, and there is always information that is hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making? Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, its difficult to say Im not sure in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions dont always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions dont always lead to bad outcomes. By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you dont, youll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. Youll become more confident, calm, compassionate and successful in the long run.
1518 Руб.
Holmes Richard Wellington. The Iron Duke
Richard Holmes, highly acclaimed military historian and broadcaster, tells the exhilarating story of Britain's greatest-ever soldier, the man who posed the most serious threat to Napoleon. The Duke of Wellington's remarkable life and extraordinary campaigns are recreated with Holmes' superb skill in this compelling book. Richard Holmes charts Wellington's stellar military career from India to Europe, and in the process, rediscovers the reasons Queen Victoria called him the greatest man the nineteenth century had produced. Combining his astute historical analysis with a semi-biographical examination of Wellington, Holmes artfully illustrates the rapid evolution in military and political thinking of the time. Wellington is a brilliant figure, idealistic in politics, cynical in love, a wit, a beau, a man of enormous courage often sickened by war. As Richard Holmes charts his progress from a shy, indolent boy to commander-in-chief of the allied forces, he also exposes the Iron Duke as a philanderer, and a man who sometimes despised the men that he led, and was not always in control of his soldiers. Particularly infamous is the bestial rampage of his men after the capture of Cuidad Rodgrigo and Badajoz.
2435 Руб.
Shakespeare William Twelfth Night
William Shakespeare (1564-1616) was an English poet, playwright, and actor, considered by many as the greatest English writer. Hundreds of specialists were able to translate his works into every major language, and most of the plays are performed more often than those of any other author. Also known as "Twelfth Night, or What You Will," this play is a comedy that revolves around the twins Viola and Sebastian, who are separated in a shipwreck. Viola, disguised as a man named Cesario, falls in love with Duke Orsino, who is also in love with Countess Olivia. On the other side Countess falls in love with Viola thinking she is a man, thus creating an intriguing love triangle.
603 Руб.
Bowen Rhys Heirs and Graces
As thirty-fifth in line for the throne, Lady Georgiana Rannoch may not be the most sophisticated young woman, but she knows her table manners. It's forks on the left, knives on the right, not in His Majesty's back. Here I am thinking the education I received at my posh Swiss finishing school would never come in handy. And while it hasn't landed me a job, or a husband, it has convinced Her Majesty the Queen, and the Dowager Duchess to enlist my help. I have been entrusted with grooming Jack Altringham, the Duke's newly discovered heir fresh from the Outback of Australia, for high society. The upside is I am to live in luxury at one of England's most gorgeous stately homes. But upon arrival at Kingsdowne Place, my dearest Darcy has been sent to fetch Jack, leaving me stuck in a manor full of miscreants, none of whom are too pleased with the discovery of my new ward. And no sooner has the lad been retrieved than the Duke announces he wants to choose his own heir. With the house in a hubbub over the news, Jack's hunting knife somehow finds its way into the Duke's back. Eyes fall, backs turn, and fingers point to the young heir. As if the rascal wasn't enough of a handful, now he's suspected of murder. Jack may be wild, but I'd bet the crown jewels it wasn't he who killed the Duke
2210 Руб.
Kahneman D. Thinking Fast and Slow
Why is there more chance we’ll believe something if it’s in a bold type face? Why are judges more likely to deny parole before lunch? Why do we assume a good-looking person will be more competent? The answer lies in the two ways we make choices: fast, intuitive thinking, and slow, rational thinking. This book reveals how our minds are tripped up by error and prejudice (even when we think we are being logical), and gives you practical techniques for slower, smarter thinking. It will enable to you make better decisions at work, at home, and in everything you do.
3403 Руб.
Kahneman D. Thinking Fast and Slow
Why is there more chance we’ll believe something if it’s in a bold type face? Why are judges more likely to deny parole before lunch? Why do we assume a good-looking person will be more competent? The answer lies in the two ways we make choices: fast, intuitive thinking, and slow, rational thinking. This book reveals how our minds are tripped up by error and prejudice (even when we think we are being logical), and gives you practical techniques for slower, smarter thinking. It will enable to you make better decisions at work, at home, and in everything you do.
3403 Руб.
Ostrowska S., Adams K., Sowton Ch. Unlock. Level 1. Reading, Writing & Critical Thinking. Student`S Book. English Profile A1
Get your students thinking critically. A six-level skills-based English course. Unlock Reading, Writing & Critical Thinking is a six-level, research-informed, academic-light English course created to build the skills and language students need for their studies. It develops students' ability to think critically in an academic context right from the start of their language learning. Every level has 100% new, inspiring video on a range of academic topics. Critical Thinking sections develop the lower- and higher-order thinking skills required for the productive writing task, with measureable progress. Every unit is enhanced with fully integrated, bespoke Classroom App material to extend the skills and language students are learning in the book.
3779 Руб.
O`Nell R., Lewis M., Sowton Ch. Unlock. Level 2. Reading, Writing & Critical, Thinking. Student`S Book. English Profile A2
Get your students thinking critically. A six-level skills-based English course. Unlock Reading, Writing & Critical Thinking is a six-level, research-informed, academic-light English course created to build the skills and language students need for their studies. It develops students' ability to think critically in an academic context right from the start of their language learning. Every level has 100% new, inspiring video on a range of academic topics. Critical Thinking sections develop the lower- and higher-order thinking skills required for the productive writing task, with measureable progress. Every unit is enhanced with fully integrated, bespoke Classroom App material to extend the skills and language students are learning in the book.
5249 Руб.
Whire N., Peterson S., Jordan N., Sowton C/ Unlock. Level 1. Listening, Speaking & Critical Thinking. Student`S Book. English Profile A1
Get your students thinking critically. A six-level skills-based English course. Unlock Listening, Speaking & Critical Thinking is a six-level, research-informed, academic-light English course created to build the skills and language students need for their studies. It develops students' ability to think critically in an academic context right from the start of their language learning. Every level has 100% new, inspiring video on a range of academic topics. Critical Thinking sections develop the lower- and higher-order thinking skills required for the productive speaking task, with measureable progress. Every unit is enhanced with fully integrated, bespoke Classroom App material to extend the skills and language students are learning in the book.
3779 Руб.
Lansford L., Lockwood R., Sowton Ch. Unlock. Level 4. Listening, Speaking & Critical, Thinking. Student`S Book. English Profile B1
Get your students thinking critically. A six-level skills-based English course. Unlock Listening, Speaking & Critical Thinking is a six-level, research-informed, academic-light English course created to build the skills and language students need for their studies. It develops students' ability to think critically in an academic context right from the start of their language learning. Every level has 100% new, inspiring video on a range of academic topics. Critical Thinking sections develop the lower- and higher-order thinking skills required for the productive speaking task, with measureable progress. Every unit is enhanced with fully integrated, bespoke Classroom App material to extend the skills and language students are learning in the book.
6467 Руб.
Sowton C., Kennedy A. Unlock. Level 4. Reading, Writing & Critical Thinking. Student`s Book. English Profile B2
Get your students thinking critically. A six-level skills-based English course. Unlock Reading, Writing & Critical Thinking is a six-level, research-informed, academic-light English course created to build the skills and language students need for their studies. It develops students' ability to think critically in an academic context right from the start of their language learning. Every level has 100% new, inspiring video on a range of academic topics. Critical Thinking sections develop the lower- and higher-order thinking skills required for the productive writing task, with measureable progress. Every unit is enhanced with fully integrated, bespoke Classroom App material to extend the skills and language students are learning in the book.
3138 Руб.
Ostrowska S., Adams K., Sowton Ch. Unlock. Level 1. Reading, Writing & Critical Thinking. Student`S Book. English Profile A1
Get your students thinking critically. A six-level skills-based English course. Unlock Reading, Writing & Critical Thinking is a six-level, research-informed, academic-light English course created to build the skills and language students need for their studies. It develops students' ability to think critically in an academic context right from the start of their language learning. Every level has 100% new, inspiring video on a range of academic topics. Critical Thinking sections develop the lower- and higher-order thinking skills required for the productive writing task, with measureable progress. Every unit is enhanced with fully integrated, bespoke Classroom App material to extend the skills and language students are learning in the book.
3779 Руб.
O`Nell R., Lewis M., Sowton Ch. Unlock. Level 2. Reading, Writing & Critical, Thinking. Student`S Book. English Profile A2
Get your students thinking critically. A six-level skills-based English course. Unlock Reading, Writing & Critical Thinking is a six-level, research-informed, academic-light English course created to build the skills and language students need for their studies. It develops students' ability to think critically in an academic context right from the start of their language learning. Every level has 100% new, inspiring video on a range of academic topics. Critical Thinking sections develop the lower- and higher-order thinking skills required for the productive writing task, with measureable progress. Every unit is enhanced with fully integrated, bespoke Classroom App material to extend the skills and language students are learning in the book.
5249 Руб.
Whire N., Peterson S., Jordan N., Sowton C/ Unlock. Level 1. Listening, Speaking & Critical Thinking. Student`S Book. English Profile A1
Get your students thinking critically. A six-level skills-based English course. Unlock Listening, Speaking & Critical Thinking is a six-level, research-informed, academic-light English course created to build the skills and language students need for their studies. It develops students' ability to think critically in an academic context right from the start of their language learning. Every level has 100% new, inspiring video on a range of academic topics. Critical Thinking sections develop the lower- and higher-order thinking skills required for the productive speaking task, with measureable progress. Every unit is enhanced with fully integrated, bespoke Classroom App material to extend the skills and language students are learning in the book.
3779 Руб.
Lansford L., Lockwood R., Sowton Ch. Unlock. Level 4. Listening, Speaking & Critical, Thinking. Student`S Book. English Profile B1
Get your students thinking critically. A six-level skills-based English course. Unlock Listening, Speaking & Critical Thinking is a six-level, research-informed, academic-light English course created to build the skills and language students need for their studies. It develops students' ability to think critically in an academic context right from the start of their language learning. Every level has 100% new, inspiring video on a range of academic topics. Critical Thinking sections develop the lower- and higher-order thinking skills required for the productive speaking task, with measureable progress. Every unit is enhanced with fully integrated, bespoke Classroom App material to extend the skills and language students are learning in the book.
6467 Руб.